Smart Mobile and thin clouds

Editor's note: Guest author Keith Teare is a general partner at its incubator businesses of Archimedes and the Director-General recently funded by just.me. He was a co-founder of TechCrunch.

— All that is solid melts into the air. There will be no Web 3.0!

When HP CEO Leo Apotheker announced that the company is looking for options for the consumer PC business and abandon mobile business equipment its shares dropped 20%. When Steve Jobs resigned from Apple CEO, after 12:0 's upper shares rose above the previous close for 48 hours.

These two stories of corporate changes are widely debated, often in expressions, for example, suppose that the men at the center of each company's history. Nevertheless, something much more remains in the game, and it will convert the entire ecosystem of software for the next 5 years. Changes will be so dramatically that the current discussions on bubble appears silly. Huge companies fail and be formed even more new companies.

The foundations of the era, we, at birth, have the following characteristics {}

Desktop computing devices, including laptops, are reduced to machines that are used to complete tasks, serious work. Fewer people will buy them in the future, and those who will use them less time software for the Web 2.0 era, provided that the services in the cloud, is consumed by people sitting at desks with browsers increasingly less relevant and used less often. Even relatively new projects, like Facebook and Google + will become "stale" quickly. mobile devices and especially smart phones will more and more things, a person will need to make, and will do so more easily and productively. Adoption would quickly and Tom is going to be huge because of the ease of use and convenience of always-on device, combined with powerful software and services: software and services will run on these devices and use cloud storage and delivery. Rich clients will make use of thin clouds. Cloud will get bigger, but simpler. Old Web applications, web 2.0 and the paradigm of web services architecture will decline the Apple iPhone is best suited for this emerging human experience. Google's Android, being mainly a thin client for Google's thick cloud (Docs, Gmail, calendar, contacts, Picasa, G +) will make happy geeks, but it will be necessary to change the primary choice of discerning consumers. Its large amounts of driving will be less passion and more points of commodity prices, not unlike Symbian in an earlier era.Facebook, archetypal thick cloud ecosystem is highly vulnerable during this transitional period, as almost his entire business is based on the architecture of the cloud through the holding of a person's social graph and as a means of acting on this graph. Facebook mobile applications such as thin client, it will not be as easy or as powerful for users as a real mobile social network. anybody building almost anything in 2011, should think "mobile first" and possibly "only mobile". They must empower owners of smart phone to perform complex and simple tasks with a minimum of fuss and maximum performance. They should not require a person to go and sit on the table for anything.

This whole move is determined by the ecosystems, which started with the iPhone. Android, on the contrary, is backward-looking architecture. This is a means to spread the old Web services to mobile audience, but this does not make software to meet the opportunities provided by mobile or easier, new architecture, it offers.

Viewed from this perspective, HP rightly want to exit the hardware business. This game out there for the next few years. Apple has a huge lead.

Google still has a shot at relevance in connection with Android, but dramatic changes in Android philosophy to achieve this goal. HTML5 will not be enough to upgrade Web 2.0 mobile ecosystem for the future. The new ecosystem is caused by user comfort with the ecosystem more decentralized, user-centric mobile applications.

Facebook will be challenged to maintain its leading role in the social networks, if it can be quite different, decentralized architecture. But as the most centralized success stories of web 2.0 that will not be obvious or just until it is too late.

In the next 10 years is a wonderfully interesting. And thanks goes to ... Apple and Steve jobs. No more suits, think different.

Photo credit: Pedro Szekely

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